UNIX Summit Fallout: Good News for Alpha, DUNIX, & OVMS

SKD--and by proxy, AlphaMan--were among those present at the May 5 Unix Executive Summit in New York City. Not only was the Digital Unix "love-in" entirely consistent with our expectations (see "Bob and Larry and Eckhard's Excellent Adventure," SKD V5N12, May 4, 1998), it provided a few unexpected surprises as well. Briefly, Compaq CEO Eckhard Pfeiffer made it abundantly clear that his firm is squarely behind the Alpha architecture as well as Digital's two home-grown strategic operating systems. Presented herewith are some of the FUD-busting highlights of the May 5 press conference.

Will It Stay or Will It Go?

A government-mandated Cone of Silence has precluded Digital and Compaq executives from presenting detailed strategic plans and product roadmaps, thus positioning the Compaq-tion issue almost completely within the realm of speculation and conjecture, and rendering the topic very susceptible to competitive FUD. Accordingly, quashing the FUD with factual information was the key item on the press conference agenda. Not surprisingly, the announcement of stellar TPC results generated on a cluster of Digital UNIX-based TurboLasers running Oracle8 was eclipsed by press and analyst concerns regarding the future of Digital's architecture, operating systems, and products. Cone of Silence notwithstanding, DEC and Compaq executives did an excellent job articulating a future scenario which appears bright indeed for Alpha, Digital UNIX, and OpenVMS.

Eckhard Embraces Alpha

"Digital's Alpha based systems offer a compelling 64-bit platform today, two years ahead of the IA64 architecture. Compaq and Digital are committed to delivering the world's best 64-bit computing environment with Digital UNIX and OpenVMS today. I believe we can establish Alpha as an open industry standard, building on Digital's licensing with Intel, Samsung and a proposed agreement with AMD, and customers can buy Alpha systems today with renewed confidence in Alpha's long-term future," said Mr. Pfeiffer.

Asked if Compaq will ship Alpha systems, Pfeiffer's answer was an emphatic yes. "Once the deal is closed (in other words, the merger is official) Compaq will be promoting Alpha products. The future will have an Alpha roadmap that Compaq will enhance through continued R&D investment in the technology and enhancement of the architecture."

It's OK to Say the "U-Word"

Chairman Ken Olsen may have demonized Unix during his tenure at Digital, but the firm today is selling substantial quantities of 64-bit snake oil. It is estimated that Digital UNIX platform, storage, and software-related revenue is in excess of $2B per year. Moreover, the firm is experiencing increased demand for Digital UNIX: server revenues increased about 20 percent year-over-year in the fiscal quarter just ended.

According to Bruce Claflin, Digital's current Unix market share is between 6 and 7 percent, but poised for imminent growth. "If you look at relevant market share by combining Digital plus the market shares of Tandem and Sequent, you find that effective market share goes up to almost 10 percent. With our partners, [the market share] is very sizable."

Compaq Convergence, Unix-Style

As for Compaq, Eckhard Pfeiffer noted that his firm is approaching $1B sales a year in Intel-based UNIX revenue via its partnership with SCO. Still, Digital UNIX-based enterprise solutions are strategic to Compaq's long-term success.

"The UNIX market has reached one of those strategic inflection points that Andy Grove is so fond of talking about, that is, a time of tremendous market opportunity for companies that are prepared to take advantage of it. Digital's UNIX is the most secure, reliable, scaleable, and Windows NT friendly 64-bit UNIX platform for enterprise computing on the market today," said Pfeiffer.

Since Compaq will continue to partner with SCO to offer UNIXware to the 32-bit Intel volume market, it's clear that the firm has, for the time being, a two-track Unix strategy. But, as SKD predicted back in March, Digital UNIX will be the long-term winner in the Compaq 64-bit computing arena.

The Mutant NC

Oracle CEO and erstwhile network computer pitchman Larry Ellison was clearly pleased about the benchmark results obtained on his flagship product, but his answer to a query about the fate of the NC was, well, philosophical: "It's predicted by the year 2008 that NCs will outnumber PCs ten to one. But you know, a network computer is any computer that can run an Internet browser. Three years ago I said the world is sorely in need of $500 computers that can access the Internet. Guess what? The PC industry is well on its way to delivering $500 computers that can access the Internet. So I would say the low-end PC is mutating into a network computer." Contrast this pragmatic assessement with Sun's "stay tuned" stance on NCs.

And Last But Not Least, OpenVMS

Somebody had to do it, so SKD queried Mr. Pfeiffer regarding the depth of Compaq's commitment to the OpenVMS operating system. The answer we received was reassuring: "We made the commitment that we will support OpenVMS when we made the [January 26 merger] announcement. We had looked at it prior to the announcement and in the pre-discussion to the merger. We are aware of the customer base that is dependent on OpenVMS and so it is clear that we're going to support it as long as these customers want OpenVMS."